The Sara Duterte impeachment trial just hit its most consequential technicality: with three senator-judges absent, prosecution co-counsel Terry Ridon says only the impeachment court itself can rule whether the 16-vote conviction threshold can bend, a question that could decide the vice president’s political survival and the 2028 race in one ruling. The Constitution’s two-thirds requirement suddenly has room for argument.
What Ridon actually said
Speaking at the Saturday News Forum, the Bicol Saro representative pushed back against calls to lower the threshold despite absences: “It is not for the prosecution or defense to determine the threshold. It is for them. It is for the senator-judges to make that determination.” He added that the 16-vote number is “not absolute” under the Constitution, leaving interpretation to the court’s members rather than seeking a Supreme Court intervention, for now.
Why three seats are empty
| Absent senator-judge | Reason |
|---|---|
| Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa | In hiding amid an ICC arrest warrant |
| Jinggoy Estrada | Arrested over plunder charges |
| Rodante Marcoleta | Arrested over plunder charges |
Senate President Francis Escudero, presiding over the court since the trial opened July 6, has maintained the orthodox position: conviction still requires at least 16 of the 24 senators’ votes under Article XI, Section 3 of the 1987 Constitution. The arithmetic problem is blunt: with 21 participating senators, every single vote carries outsized weight, and the defense needs only six to acquit.
The stakes behind the procedure fight
Duterte stands twice impeached by the House, first on February 5, 2025, then again on May 11, 2026, making her the first vice president in Philippine history to face an impeachment trial. A guilty verdict does not remove her from an office she no longer effectually dominates; it bars her from public office permanently, which is precisely why her camp treats every threshold argument as existential ahead of a presumed 2028 presidential bid. As we noted in our second-week trial coverage, the NBI testimony phase already exposed the confidential funds paper trail at the heart of the case.
The Supreme Court shadow
Ridon acknowledged any threshold ruling “may be opportunity for any party to actually go to Supreme Court,” setting up the real endgame: whatever the senator-judges decide, the losing side almost certainly escalates to the high tribunal, injecting months of legal uncertainty into what was designed as a self-contained political trial. The prosecution, meanwhile, has offered longer hearing hours and Friday sessions to compress the timeline before the procedural questions metastasize.
Quick answers
How many votes convict Sara Duterte? Sixteen of 24 senators under the constitutional two-thirds rule, though Ridon argues the court itself interprets that number when senators are absent.
Why are three senators absent from the trial? Dela Rosa is evading an ICC warrant; Estrada and Marcoleta are detained on plunder charges.
What happens if Duterte is convicted? Permanent disqualification from public office, ending a 2028 presidential run before it starts.
The bottom line
The trial’s biggest fights are happening between gavels, not inside witness testimony: who counts, whose absence binds, and whether a supermajority means a fixed number or a fraction of whoever shows up. Watch for either a senator-judge ruling on the threshold this week or a swift Supreme Court petition; both roads lead to the same destination, a constitutional reckoning that will outlast this trial.
