The relief from last week’s big pump rollback may barely last a week. Local fuel retailers are already projecting another sharp increase for the next price adjustment, with diesel seen rising by up to P5 per liter.
What next week’s forecast looks like
These are estimates from oil firms, not final numbers. In an advisory, Jetti Petroleum’s Leo Bellas said diesel could go up by P4.50 to P5 per liter, while gasoline may rise by about P4 to P4.50 per liter. Manila Times industry sources put diesel at roughly P4 to P5 and gasoline near P4 per liter.
| Fuel | Projected per-liter increase | Source basis |
|---|---|---|
| Diesel | P4.50 to P5.00 | Jetti Petroleum advisory |
| Gasoline | about P4.00 to P4.50 | Jetti Petroleum advisory |
The estimates are built on the first four days of trading at the Mean of Platts Singapore, the regional pricing benchmark, plus foreign exchange moves. With trading days still to come, the final adjustment could change.
Why prices are climbing again
After more than a month of relative calm, oil snapped back on renewed Middle East tension. Bellas cited a US strike on Iran’s Larak island, Iran’s missile response and renewed threats against Iran’s Kharg Island, together with concerns over mining in the Strait of Hormuz. Manila Times also points to friction involving Russia.
That reversal undoes the calmer stretch that allowed the Sept. 1 rollback, when diesel and kerosene fell by up to around P3.83 a liter. It is the same pattern that drove fuel prices up through August’s Iran-linked hikes, and a softer peso is adding pressure on importers.
What it means for your wallet
At a projected P4.50 to P5 per liter on diesel, a typical fill-up costs meaningfully more. For a 45-liter tank, that is roughly P202 to P225 extra per full tank; a 55-liter tank adds around P247 to P275.
| Diesel tank size | Added cost at P4.50 per liter | Added cost at P5.00 per liter |
|---|---|---|
| 40 liters | P180 | P200 |
| 45 liters | P202 | P225 |
| 55 liters | P247 | P275 |
The country is also watching a peso near record lows, which makes imported fuel more expensive and can widen the increase once oil firms set final prices.
The bottom line
Oil firms adjust pump prices weekly, usually landing on Tuesdays. Because the projection still depends on how crude trades before the announcement, treat the P4.50 to P5 diesel figure as a working estimate rather than a locked price. If you can, top up before the next adjustment goes into effect.
