El Niño is coming back, and PAGASA warns it could hit the Philippines hard. The state weather bureau sees an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño between October 2026 and January 2027, with conditions expected to linger into the first half of next year.
What PAGASA is forecasting
In its climate outlook for August 2026 to January 2027, PAGASA puts the odds of a very strong El Niño at 81% and says there is a 97% chance El Niño conditions persist through the first half of 2027. A weak to moderate El Niño is already present in the tropical Pacific, and the bureau expects it to strengthen into a strong event during the July to September period.
- 81% chance of a very strong El Niño, October 2026 to January 2027
- 97% chance El Niño conditions last through the first half of 2027
- Below-normal rainfall likely across much of the country
Which areas face dry spells and drought
By the end of August, PAGASA forecasts dry spell or drought conditions across parts of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao, per the weather bureau. A dry spell means below-normal rainfall for three straight months, while drought means below-normal rain for five straight months.
| Condition | Areas by the end of August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Dry spell | Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Agusan del Norte, Basilan, Dinagat Islands, Misamis Occidental, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay |
| Drought | Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Biliran, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Northern Samar, Samar, Siquijor |
How El Niño changes Philippine weather
El Niño is driven by abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and it typically brings below-normal rainfall to the Philippines. The country tends to see fewer tropical cyclones during an El Niño, although the ones that do form can still reach typhoon or super typhoon intensity, as PAGASA has previously warned.
Why this one could be worse
Globally, forecasters are watching a potential “super” El Niño take shape. The US NOAA pegged roughly an 80% chance of El Niño developing by July, and the UK Met Office’s head of long-range prediction has said it could be “the strongest in decades or even of record strength.” Only three El Niños since 1877 have pushed Pacific sea temperatures 2 degrees Celsius above average: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
What to watch
The bigger risk to Filipinos is water. El Niño-driven dryness is what pushed Angat Dam to a record low earlier this year before the habagat rains refilled it, and the same dynamics could strain water supply, agriculture and power again in late 2026 and into 2027.
