QUEZON CITY, Philippines (Aug 2026) – Southeast Asia might be much closer to standing alongside the world’s biggest superpowers than most people realize. A new study from the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) reveals that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is building the economic and strategic momentum needed to become an independent center of global power.
Rapid economic growth drives the shift
According to the PIDS study titled “ASEAN’s Ascent: A Global Power in the Making,” authored by PIDS Supervising Research Specialist Mark Anthony Barral and Senior Research Fellow Francis Mark Quimba, the bloc’s combined gross domestic product jumped from $118 billion in 2000 to $3.37 trillion in 2023. With a population exceeding 685 million, the region now carries massive market weight.
Using statistical modeling, researchers found that the probability of ASEAN being classified as a core power center rose to 0.89 over a 24-year observation period, while its chances of remaining just an emerging economy dropped below 0.50. Economic size emerged as the strongest factor tied to global power status, followed by governance, military capabilities, research and development, digital connectivity, trade openness, and the rule of law.
Neutrality as a strategic advantage
The study emphasizes that ASEAN does not need to copy traditional major-power dominance models. Instead, its main strength lies in its earned trust and neutrality, allowing the bloc to act as a bridge between competing global powers. Platforms like the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, and ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus give the region a unique position in international diplomacy.
However, economic growth alone will not guarantee global influence. The region’s military spending grew from $24.9 billion in 2000 to $65.6 billion in 2023, but it still lags far behind major powers like China.
What needs to happen next
To turn this potential into lasting influence, the study recommends deeper regional economic integration, faster implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), unified supply chain standards, and better digital connectivity. It also calls for stronger cooperation in maritime security, disaster response, and sustainable development.
The authors also advise diversifying partnerships beyond the U.S. and China by building stronger ties with India, the European Union, Africa, and Latin America.
With the Philippines taking on the ASEAN Chairship in 2026, Pinoy leaders have a timely opportunity to drive these regional initiatives forward and strengthen the bloc’s strategic position on the global stage.
The full research paper is available via the PIDS study.
