Your next phone will cost more, and it might have less RAM than you expected. Global smartphone SoC shipments fell 15% year on year in H1 2026, and the culprit is not weak demand. It is the price of memory, which has surged more than 300% in a year and is now the single biggest cost inside a phone. Here is what that means for buyers in the Philippines.
Why chip shipments are falling
Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Smartphone SoC Shipments report blames three things: soaring memory prices, cautious inventory management by phone makers, and a longer replacement cycle. MediaTek and Qualcomm shipments fell more than 25% YoY, while Apple, Samsung, Google, and UNISOC all gained share for different reasons.
Apple’s share rose 4% on the strength of the iPhone 17 series. Samsung’s Galaxy S26 split its chipsets between Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 and Samsung’s own Exynos 2600, unlike its predecessor which ran entirely on Qualcomm silicon. Softer Xiaomi 17 sales added more pressure on Qualcomm. MediaTek, meanwhile, was hit hardest in its low-end and entry-level 5G chipsets, although its premium Dimensity 9500 series is doing well with design wins at vivo, OPPO, Pocophone, and Redmi.
The memory crisis is the real story
Smartphone memory prices skyrocketed more than 300% YoY in Q2 2026, driven by AI data center demand for HBM memory. Phone makers are aggressively locking in long-term supply contracts, either to survive the shortage or to capitalize on it. The result: memory costs now surpass SoC costs across every price segment, which is unprecedented.
That shift hits budget phones hardest. Counterpoint’s Principal Analyst Soumen Mandal warns that entry-level shipments could fall more than 30% this year, and the memory supply is not expected to normalize before H2 2027. Omdia separately projects that smartphones priced below USD 400 will decline by 22% as costs soar. Some entry-level models could even revert to 4GB of RAM to keep prices down.
What this means for the Philippines
This is bad news for a market that runs on budget phones. Transsion brands alone hold 36.6% of the Philippine market, and most of their volume sits in the PHP 5,000 to 15,000 range, exactly the segment being squeezed. UNISOC’s 4G platforms are winning designs in entry-level phones as brands try to cut BoM costs, and UNISOC is pushing into 5G through partnerships with Pocophone and Redmi. Expect more of those budget models in Philippine stores in the second half of 2026.
For buyers, the practical advice is simple: if you are planning to buy a budget or midrange phone, buy sooner rather than later. Prices are expected to rise 5% to 12% on new models, and the average selling price of smartphones globally is projected to climb 6.9% in 2026. The cheapest phones will feel the biggest jump because memory already eats the largest share of their BoM.
The bright spot: AI phones
Not everything is falling. GenAI smartphone SoC shipments grew 24% YoY in H1 2026 despite the cost pressure, powered by consumer appetite for AI features and the premiumization trend. Premium and flagship buyers keep upgrading, which is why Apple, Samsung, and Google grew while the entry tier shrank.
That creates a two-speed market: premium phones keep selling on AI features, while budget phones get squeezed by memory costs. In the Philippines, where most people buy at the budget end, the squeeze will be felt the most. If you have been eyeing a new phone, the window before the next round of price hikes is closing.
